2021 Fantasy Football Draft/Pass: Quarterbacks

The Draft/Pass series will be going over every positional group, and I may even dabble into IDP. The positional rankings I will be using is FantasyPros so there will be a consistency throughout this, even though I do not totally agree with them. My opinion on each player is my own, and I would love to hear why you agree or disagree. THIS IS ALSO FOR 1 QB LEAGUES, NOT SUPERFLEX.

Draft

Matthew Stafford, LA Rams

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Former Detroit Lions superstar Matthew Stafford begins the 2021-22 campaign in sunny Los Angeles after being traded earlier this year. Stafford takes over an offense that has far more weapons than his Detroit teams have had the past decade, even with the unfortunate loss of Cam Akers. With Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee all returning, the Rams drafted receivers Tutu Atwell in the 2nd round, Jacob Harris in the 4th, and Ben Skowronek in the 7th. Darrell Henderson will serve as the lead back with Akers going down (news broke as I was writing this) and the involvement of Xavier Jones will be certainly needed.

Stafford enters in on FantasyPros at #12. This criminally underrates what Stafford is capable of. He was the #15 in fantasy points despite only playing 100% snaps in only 12 games. This was also with a WR group consisting of Marvin Jones Jr., Quintez Cephus, Danny Amendola, and Marvin Hall. My selection of Stafford being here may be due to my own hometown bias, but Stafford was the life of the Lions for a long time and we are all excited to see what he will be able to do in LA and what this Rams team has to offer. His ADP should be much higher than it is. I would consider him a top 5 candidate for the 2021 season.

Daniel Jones, NY Giants

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This will come as a shock and I will either look like a genius or an idiot for this take, but the Giants have the weapons to be a scary offense next year. It all comes down to Daniel Jones taking care of the football. He’s had 39 turnovers the past two years, but showed signs of improvement his sophomore season. Entering his third season, he now has Saquon Barkley returning at some point early in 2021 and a true WR1 in Kenny Golladay coming over from Detroit this offseason. The Giants drafted WR Kadarius Toney in the 1st round of the 2021 draft, but reports have come out stating that Toney will be a project WR and will make the biggest impact in the return game. His role as a receiver is not immediately pressing with Golladay, Shepard, Slayton, and TE Evan Engram being the target-men for Daniel Jones.

Daniel Jones comes in on FantasyPros as their #21 QB. In 14 games last season, he was ranked #24 on Sleeper, so a slight rise is not very controversial on FantasyPros, but I think Daniel Jones can crack the top 15 IF HE CAN TAKE CARE OF THE FOOTBALL. This strictly relies on Daniel Jones taking that step forward because I think this is his last chance to show that he deserved being the #6 overall draft pick and replacing Eli Manning. This is a make it or break it year for Daniel Jones, and I’m betting on him making it.

Trey Lance, SF 49ers

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I’m going to say it, this situation reeks of Patrick Mahomes and KC when he was drafted. Cannon arm, viewed as a project, and had suitable weapons around him. With that said, I do not have Patrick Mahomes expectations. Trey Lance is coming from a good D-II program, but he has not played against D-I defenses. What Trey Lance has going for him though is Jimmy Garoppolo ahead of him on the depth chart, which will help him adjust to both the playbook and the speed of the NFL. The 49ers have two solid, young receivers in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Ayuik, along with one of the top TEs in the league with George Kittle. Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell were among the draft selections for San Francisco which will bolster the running back group that lost Jerrick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman. I would expect Sermon to take that RB1 spot sooner than Lance takes the QB1 spot, but having young talent that are progressing will help Lance become more comfortable in this offense.

Drafting Lance high is a gamble, because he could start Week 1 this season, or be held out until Week 1 next season. I think that he will find a middle ground there, with the likelihood of him getting a chance sooner rather than later if Jimmy G continues to regress. Trey Lance instantly makes this offense more polarizing, boosting the value of all receivers and Kittle. Lance’s ability to push the ball down field and throw sideline to sideline with zip on the ball makes Ayuik a target for fantasy owners as well. Trey Lance is not going to be a starter for your teams immediately, but he will be your starter heading into the playoffs and for years beyond.

Pass

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

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Kliff Kingsbury will not take Arizona to the next level. This has more to do with Coach Kingsbury than it has to do with Kyler Murray. I think Murray is a great QB and has shown that he is deserving of being a top QB drafted. However, I will not be biting at his current ADP. Arizona did no improve their running game, their offensive line consists of almost all new guys, and it seems as if it is only bringing in guys on their last leg i.e. James Conner, AJ Green, JJ Watt, and Rodney Hudson.

Kyler Murray was the #1 QB on Sleeper last season and comes in at #3 on FantasyPros this season. He has a top receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, but after that, I’m not a fan of this offense. If Kyler has to continue to run for his life, Arizona will be on a downward spiral. I do not like the lack of usage at their TE position. I hate their rushing game. Outside of Hopkins, Kyler has no true weapons. If Kyler slips and 5 QBs are taken before him, I would consider. Taking him after Mahomes and Allen is a risk that I am staying away from.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

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The first pick of the 2021 NFL Draft has been compared to the likes of Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning. The talent is there, but Lawrence is missing what Luck and Manning had. In his rookie year, Luck had Reggie Wayne and rookie TY Hilton as targets. Peyton, although he had a terrible rookie year, had Marvin Harrison and Marshall Faulk. Jacksonville does not have any weapons that are comparable to what Luck and Manning had. Lawrence is going to be a great QB, but I would hold off in 2021 because I do not think Urban Meyer will last long as the head coach in Jacksonville.

Like I said, the talent is there. I just hate the situation, which is similar to Kyler Murray. Trevor Lawrence will be a great QB in this league, but I don’t believe that he will have the fantasy relevance this season for him to be one of the top players in his position to be taken. Do not rely on him to be your starter, but look for him as a backup because of his possible upside.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

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Jalen Hurts is at the helm of the Eagles after Carson Wentz’s departure to Indy. A major problem with the Eagles is that they have been missing a star receiver to help out Wentz and now Hurts. The addition of Jalen Raegor last season has been an improvement, but he is not the alpha that will bolster their offense. Drafting DeVonta Smith, however, will. The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner will be a great weapon for his former and current QB.

The issue at hand is that Hurts is currently QB11 on FantasyPros. Braking into QB1 territory for a guy with a new coach, new weapons, but most importantly, rumors swirling around Deshaun Watson. Drafting Hurts at his current ADP is an incredible risk considering that Watson is not off the table. Further, it seems as if negotiations have occurred between the Texans and Eagles, which shows that Hurts may not be Nick Sirianni’s guy. I would recommend fading Hurts this season, until it is determined that he will be the franchise guy in Philly for the years to come.

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Guide to adding IDP to your 2021 Fantasy Football Leagues

The standard format of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 (S)F, 1 K, and 1 DEF limits your league to one side of the ball for every game each week besides one. With Superflex becoming more and more popular each year, the QB position is the most important in both fantasy and the NFL. What is forgotten is that defenses win championships, but that is not the case in most fantasy leagues. IDP, or Individual Defensive Player, leagues create a whole new dynamic in FF. Yet, most leagues that incorporate IDP do not have their rosters setup for these defensive players to have real value, which defeats the purpose from transitioning from whole DEF to IDP.

Roster Sizing

For IDP, I would highly recommend going 2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB, and 3 FLEX. I mentioned above that leagues with IDP have bad setups because often I see leagues that only use 1-3 IDP players, which removes any value they have. The more players that are rostered, the less players on the waiver wire, which means the value of the rostered players is far more significant. For example, leagues that have their lineups set for just 3 FLEX IDP (12 team league) have about 60 players that are rostered. Going to Fantasy Pros, this leaves guys like Danielle Hunter, Shaq Barrett, Tyrann Mathieu, Chase Young, and Leighton Vander Esch potentially on the waiver wire. Trading for IDP isn’t going to be a winning strategy when guys like these aren’t rostered. When you use the format I suggested, you are starting 9 players, and maybe have 1-2 guys in each position on your bench. So lets say, on average, teams are rostering 13 defensive players. That is 156 defensive players being rostered, and Fantasy Pros only has 153 players in their rankings. It may seem like a lot, but it adds significant value to guys like Devin White and Roquan Smith.

Scoring

There are many different formats for IDP scoring, so it is important for either you as the commissioner or you as the team owner to understand the strengths and weaknesses of your scoring system. The IDP Guys have a great article that highlights the amount of points each format rewards. Leagues that are tackle heavy will make the top LBs extremely valuable. Leagues that have QB hits and sacks being rewarded the most will have EDGE and DT players being the lead IDP targets. And obviously, pass defend, interceptions, and return yard bonuses will have DBs being most valuable. Creating a balance between the 3 scoring systems is difficult and may not be necessary. Whatever scoring your league has, it is important for you to grab the guys that the format best fits. For instance, my league sees LBs scoring the highest amongst all IDP due to being in a tackle heavy league. Devin White, Darius Leonard, and Roquan Smith are all significantly more valuable that guys like Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, or any corner for that matter.

New Dynamic

The same feeling you get when you see your WR catch a TD or your RB take off for a 30 yard run is the same feeling you will get when your DL get a sack or DB gets a pick. You will hate seeing your RB being tackled for a loss until you see it is your LB. You will be researching depth charts and looking at snap counts to find the diamond in the rough, which is much more likely than finding the diamond on the offensive side of the ball.

Give it a try, trust me. It is a refreshing take on fantasy football that you won’t be able to leave.

Five Rookies Your Team Must Have: 2020 Dynasty Fantasy Football

I want to start by explaining what dynasty fantasy football is and how it will change your life. If you’re just now finding out about dynasty, then welcome. If you are a veteran, then feel free to skip past this section. Dynasty fantasy football is a league that works the same as regular fantasy football, except that you keep your team every year. You begin with one draft to fill your roster. After the first year, instead of re-drafting, you instead have a rookie draft (only rookies or rookies/free-agents). During the year, you can trade your future rookie picks for players (Team A trades 2021 1st round to Team B for Kenyan Drake). The draft order works similarly to the NFL where the worst team gets the first pick, and the champion gets the last pick. Deciding whether to commit to that year’s championship or letting go and trying to grab a top 4/5 pick in the draft is what makes or breaks teams. For example, last year I traded away my 1st and 2nd round picks for Allen Robinson and Mark Andrews to push towards the championship late in the season. I was knocked out in the first round of the playoffs and would have had the fifth pick in the draft and would have gotten one of the top 4 RB’s coming out. Things like that need to be considered. Very general description, if any more clarification is wanted, I would be happy to explain.

Obviously, go get Taylor, CEH, Dobbins, Swift, Jeudy, and Lamb. Those guys are going to be the closest to sure-fire assets for dynasty teams. However, guys that will slip out of the first and get into the later rounds is what this is geared towards. Let’s get into it.

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Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

The 34th pick in this year’s draft is not the most talented receiver in the class, but landed in one of the best situations any could have. Michael Pittman joins a Colts team that acquired QB Phillip Rivers after speculation of who will take the helm since the surprising retirement from Andrew Luck. Pittman led the Pac-12 in both receptions (101) and yards (1275) in 2019, while leading USC in yards in 2018 and 2019. With his 6’4, 223lb frame, Pittman had a staggering 18.5 yards per reception in 2018.

All that said, Pittman is setup to takeover at WR1 in the coming years for the Colts. TY Hilton is entering his 9th season, coming off back to back limited seasons in both 2018 and 2019 due to injuries. At 30 years old, Chris Ballard locked up a guy who would have went in the first in almost any other draft class. Overall, the Colts offense may surprise teams the next few years after creating a foundation behind Pittman, Taylor, and Nelson. Also not forgetting Paris Campbell, who was drafted last year. What I worry about is Indy’s QB situation. Regardless, whoever is brought in to take over for Phillip Rivers, Ballard has done a great job in providing weapons. Pittman is a long-term receiver that fantasy owners should lock up in their rookie drafts early.

Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Redskins

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Antonio Gibson has a chance to be an incredibly valuable asset to Dwayne Haskins and the Redskins. Gibson is listed as a RB, but doesn’t have the experience you would expect. In 2019, Gibson had 33 carries for 369 yards and 4 touchdowns. With limited carries, I still like what I see. Regardless, what makes Gibson so valuable is his versatility. To go along with his rushing stats, Gibson had 38 receptions for 735 yards and 8 touchdowns. Further, he had 23 kickoff returns for 645 yards and 1 touchdown. Gibson is a complete, do-it-all player that can push for a large role in the Redskins offense.

His situation also provides upside. Derrius Guice currently has the starting RB job, however, injuries are a concern after appearing in only 5 games in the last two seasons. That and having 35 year old Adrian Peterson as his backup makes the Washington’s runningback room all that more shaky. In saying that, I’m not forgetting about JD McKissic or Bryce Love. I see Gibson still as their RB3 because of McKissic being more of a utility player and not seeing Love being a vital option coming off an ACL tear in his last game at Stanford which has required surgery in both 2018 and 2019. Overall, I would expect to see Gibson get some limited but early action in 2019. If Guice goes down, Gibson has an opportunity to take over duties as their RB1.

Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR, Washington Redskins

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Joining Gibson is the WR out of Liberty that has generated an abundance of hype by those who know who he is. Antonio Gandy-Golden (AGG) is a 6’4, 220lb monster on the outside. His stats in 2018 and 2019 are almost identical. In 2018, he had 71 receptions for 1,037 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2019, he had 79 receptions for 1,396 yards and 10 touchdowns. The production is there, however, the competition disparity compared to the likes of guys coming out of the SEC or Big-12 is evident. It’s not that much of a worry to me that he hasn’t played in the best conferences. AGG has the talent and the tools to be a contributing asset to the Redskins.

The Washington offense is going through almost a complete rebuild. Dwayne Haskins was drafted in 2019 as their new QB. Derrius Guice was drafted in 2018, but took his first snap at RB for the Redskins in 2019. Terry McLaurin broke out in his rookie season last year appearing to be their future WR1. The WR2 spot is still wide open. Steven Sims is the assumed guy for the spot currently, who is entering his second season as an UDFA. Kelvin Harmon is also a guy in his second year that is in the running. A lot of shifting and sorting is needed to take place for there to become a solidified WR2. In my opinion, I would imagine Harmon steps up into the WR2 role and AGG steps up into the WR3 role this year.

AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers

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AJ Dillion is a 6’0, 247lb RB out of Boston College who has been extremely productive in his college career. As a freshman in 2017, Dillon carried the ball 300 times for 1,589 yards and 14 touchdowns. Insane numbers for any running back, especially for a freshman. In 2018, he appeared in only 10 games due to an ankle injury in late September. Regardless, Dillon accumulated 1,108 yards and 10 touchdowns on 227 carries. Rounding out his college career, Dillon had 318 carries for 1,685 yards and 14 touchdowns. The major knock on his career at BC was his ability in the passing game. In his freshman year, Dillon had zero catches. In 2018, he had 8 receptions. In 2019, he had 13 receptions. Gradually, he did show signs of having an impact with his hands.

In terms of becoming an immediate impact, I don’t see it for 2020. Dillon is a long-term play. Teams are not tying themselves to RB’s unless they are absolutely necessary. Aaron Jones is coming off a great year, but I believe that Green Bay is showing that they are not committed to him by using a 2nd round pick on Dillon. If Jones is let go after the season, Dillon is in a great spot to take over. He has shown that he is an absolute workhorse. Giving him a year to learn the offense and freshen up his legs will give him the best opportunity at success.

Darrynton Evans, RB, Tennessee Titans

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This is a guy that has me most excited, mainly because he is on my dynasty roster. Darrynton Evans landed in Tennessee that has a chance to get some legitimate playing time by taking 3rd down snaps away from Derrick Henry. Evans stepped up in his last two seasons at Appalachian State with a combined 433 carries for 2,667 yards and 25 touchdowns. Production in the rushing game, with his added ability in the passing game is what puts Evans in an ideal spot in taking a step towards being the head guy in Tennessee.

Derrick Henry is playing in 2020 off a franchise tag, and I don’t see a long-term deal being put together. Although I really like Evans, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Titans let Henry go while either drafting or signing a guy to share snaps with Evans. If you are in a PPR league, Evans will be your guy. Especially in 12 or 14 team leagues, rostering guys likes Tarik Cohen and James White can be incredibly valuable. Evans can be a guy that isn’t your week to week starter, but if an injury or bye comes to your week, he can put up enough points to be a suitable starter.

Honorable Mentions:

Adam Trautman, TE, New Orleans Saints

An aging Jared Cook sets up Trautman to carve himself out a role in Sean Payton’s offense. Trautman won’t see significant playing time immediately, which is why I wouldn’t roster him on your team unless you have space for a flier. With the uncertainty at QB, I can’t lean one way or another on how I feel about Trautman’s situation.

Joshua Kelley, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

The departure of Melvin Gordon allowed Austin Ekeler to step into a larger role. He was able to handle the workload while putting up fantastic numbers. 2020 will show whether or not Ekeler will be Gordon’s replacement for LAC. If not, Kelley has a chance to takeover duties late in 2020 or early 2021. Kelley is worth a roster spot, but depending on Ekeler and Justin Jackson’s situations, I would not expect any impact in 2020.